Climate vulnerability, risk, reslience, and mitigation

University of Chicago's Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth's Human-Centered Weather Forecast Initiative is helping to improve forecasts around the world by using ECMWF's AIFS ensemble to offer 51 different predictions of probabilistic odds of precipitation, integrating machine learning, cloud computing architecture, and delivery of forecasts to the people who need them.

This climate vulnerability assessment quantified climate change impacts on marine heat waves along the Andaman coast and Gulf of Thailand habitat areas using the MESoscale Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in Seasonal-to-Decadal CLImate Prediction (MESACLIP) CESM-HR ensembles, finding that mortality thresholds is reached in nearly every model from 2075 and beyond in RCP6.0 and 2050 and beyond in RCP8.5.

USAID's Heshimu Bahari (Respect the Ocean) project aims to enhance the ecological resilience and productivity of high marine biodiversity areas in Tanzania by strengthening marine protected areas and wild-caught fisheries management. I, along with some colleagues at Chemonics International, authored a climate vulnerability and capacity assessment (CVCA) to identify areas of climate vulnerability and adaptation through a quantitative assessment of climate trends and hazards, along with evaluating socio-economic characteristics of coastal communities through participatory workshops.

Heshimu Bahari CVCA 2024 

Climate change has amplified the magnitude and duration of climate shocks, having profound impacts on agricultural-based livelihoods in Central America, forcing many to migrate. I, along with co-authors at Chemonics International, developed a Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) to measure the physical risks posed by a changing climate and small-scale farmers' capacity to adapt to these changes in El Salvador and Honduras. I completed a quantitative analysis on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones, floods, groundwater,  droughts, and extreme weather events in the region. The CVA identified adaptation measures and ways to build resilience through climate-smart agricultural practices. 

ARCO CVCA 2024 

Senegal is highly vulnerable to climate change because so much of its population and economy relies on natural systems undergoing rapid changes due to anthropogenic forcing. As water is the principal conduit by which climate change impacts society, we completed a climate vulnerability assessment for USAID's Senegal Water Resource Management activity. I, along with co-authors at Chemonics International, quantitatively assessed climate, environmental, groundwater, streamflow, weather, and agricultural impacts on water resources and provided robust adaptation measures.